Russia Strategic Weaknesses in Ukraine
Russia Strategic Weaknesses in Ukraine
Russia European border security pivot around Ukraine. Kiev is an essential piece in Russian security strategy as it protects Russia’s eastern land border and on the Sea, Russia’s access to the Black and Caspian Seas. This in turn Geographically threaten Moscow access to four seas: the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea, The Baltic Sea and the White Sea. The Deep water system of European Russia, connects the inland with Russia’s peripheries, including the Azov Sea, where Moscow obtain majority of its Energy sources, like coal and oil. Thus the Azov and Black Seas are essential pieces in Russia’s security strategy.
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Narration by Jasper: pdaefaul@gmail.com
Script editing by Sterling, Elmer and Hugo
Many thanks to Jasper, Sterling, @Hoog and @Into Europe for their great help!
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Check out other analysis like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE&t=61s and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4wRdoWpw0w
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Table of content:
00:00 Russia’s Strategic Weakeness on its European Border
01:03 Russia’s first Weakness: The European Plain
04:46 Moscow Second Weakness: Why Ukraine Role in the Black and Azov seas is critical
06:06 Russia’s Lack of Warm Water Ports
07:30 NATO controlled Chokepoints
08:58 The Deep Water System of Russia
10:42 The Importance of Rostov-on-Don on the Azov Sea
11:33 Ukraine Strategic Importance in the Black and Azov Seas
14:24 The Volga-Don Channel
15:08 Control of the Black and Caspian Seas
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Music: CO.AG; And Vivaldi by Modena Chamber Orchestra (https://musopen.org/music/43776-concerto-no-4-in-f-minor-op-8-rv-297-linverno-winter/) under C.C. 01 https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/
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Check my previous videos:
Australia’s Maritime Strategy: https://youtu.be/RhN9C4yPALI
Strategic Importance of Afghanistan: https://youtu.be/k1j_B6PiPjU
The Malacca Dilemma: https://youtu.be/PJReTyTbbZ4
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Bibliography
[2] https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2020/5/28/putins-playbook-reviewing-dugins-foundations-of-geopolitics
[3] https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/06watpaneurop.pdf, p.25
[4] https://unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trans/doc/2018/sc3wp3/5.8_NONIUS_Engineering.pdf
[5] https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/06watpaneurop.pdf, p.25
[6] https://www.marshallcenter.org/de/node/1177
https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ss-n-30a/
If anything, Russia should be more worried about China pushing west, than Europe push East.
Yea sure, and Germany, Poland, Ukraine and Belarus have the exact same problem.
Land buffers arent as valuable any more with the advent of ICBMs. Regardless of which direction an enemy invades you can nuke them within 30 minutes if you wanted to. Land does have value of its own and Crimea is a great naval base.
Interesting, but you fail to treat the Russian aggressions west and soutward. It has been in wars with Turkey, Finland and Central Europe for centuries and therefore treating Ukraine as a buffer agains European invasions is at least incomplete. Russia has been an empire for at least three hundred years and one has to see it’s invasion of Ukraine not only as move to defend itself, but as a means to continue Russian imperialistic wishes and history. Putins main goal is to recreate the Russian Empire, as it was under the Soviet Union and, if possikble, to make it even larger.
Great quality picture with bullshit content he-he
Kalinyingrad💀.
Of course from the Russian standpoint, all this presupposes that European/Western nations have any interest in invading Russia. The reality of course, is that looking East, there is noting that these countries want. The West is where they want to stand. Russians are locked into the paranoid concepts 100 of years in the making but irrelevant today. I think this is why so many Russians are so savage and brutal when it comes to any perceived opposition, and why they are fine with their forces committing crimes against humanity.
All true, but this is not the main reason Russia invaded Ukraine. You don’t just go and kill your neighbor and occupy his house because you assume that it will protect you better from wolves.
You forgot, Russian has a natural defense; it’s winter.
If Ukraine had stayed neutral and not joining NATO there would have been no war. In fact NATO rejected its application twice, and Russia clearly warned them not to join NATO
LOL judging by how the West is performing (or lack of performance) in their much touted counter offensive….the Russians have nothing to worry about.
I wish I’d discovered your channel sooner. This is fantastic
the background sound is so annoying and not needed
So biased video looking Russia as enigma.
This is view of western eye
3:39 Warsaw Pact Members included the entire Czechoslovakia, not just the Slovak part .
Otherwise thumbs up, for great video .
Good history analysis, but the last thing, which the western democracies would politically be able to do, would be to invade Russia by on the ground. Therefore, this analysis can only be used to understand the points Russian propaganda is using to justify the invasion into Ukraine. And as shown by current counter-offensive on the south of Ukraine by Ukraine. Well "digged-in" and fortified positions are very hard to overcome. A price which not western politicians would not be able to justify for their own population. So this Video is about history and about a fake justification which does not exist, only in propaganda. Russian propaganda have a word this and such videos are a welcome tool for their mission: The word is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot (or rather: Useful innocents): Also, the military-industrial complexes of the USA and the EU would have to reason to exist if their nations would successfully destroy their enemies. And thru their political power in the USA, they the military industrial complex has a lot of political power/influence.
For Russia to feel safe, all they need is the destruction and annihilation of another country’s safety, culture and independence. What a small price to pay for Russia 🙃
This analysis – like many others – has a very skewed view, where russia is the only country that matters, and only russia matters. If you would apply same principles to all russian neighbors or other european or non-european countries – you’d come to conclusion that everyone should be at war with everyone. Which is, of course, wrong.
This video doesn’t even mention existence of ports of Sochi and Novorossiysk. But these do exist.
As well as the real key for exiting the Black Sea – Turkey that controls Bosphorus and Dardanelles.
And even then you’re just in the Midterranean and need to go all the way to Gibraltar and through Gibraltar to get to the ocean. So now Spain and Morocco are natural enemies for russia?
It’s quite clear IF YOU LOOK AT THE MAP that much shorter way to the ocean is via Caspian sea and then Iran – to get directly to the Indian ocean. But somehow this video is not about strategic importance of Iran to russia.
Seeing Russia has not been invaded since the invention of nuclear weapons, I wonder how much of this analysis is relevant to a nuclear state. The capture of strategic ports by NATO is irrelevant if Russia is willing to drop nuclear bombs on Berlin and Washington.
Russia boggest startegic weakness is china
only aliens are crazy enough to invade a country with 6000 nukes
Russia’s heavily centralized government combined with societal corruption and criminal activities has severly limited freedom and opportunity to the point that the human spirit is crushed.
And Russia is still in the Eastern region of Ukraine after a year since your video.
So, time to CUT YOUR BALLS for the Russians’ resilience?
Russia is falling apart today….
People cheering this war are insane people who don’t understand how important this fight is for the Russians. It’s their great patriotic war rewound and they will fight to the death or victory, whichever comes first. Does the west have the stomach for that?
NSA documents and archives from the governments involved show that the discussion about NATO expansion in 1990 was in relation to the time during and immediately following the reunification of Germany. AND, the discussions were with Gorbachev and the Soviet Union – when the Soviet Union disbanded and Gorbachev resigned, the discussions no longer had any validity:
"In his phone call to Gorbachev on July 17 [1990], Bush meant to reinforce the success of the Kohl-Gorbachev talks and the message of the London Declaration. Bush explained: “So what we tried to do was to take account of your concerns expressed to me and others, and we did it in the following ways: by our joint declaration on non-aggression; in our invitation to you to come to NATO; in our agreement to open NATO to regular diplomatic contact with your government and those of the Eastern European countries; and our offer on assurances on the future size of the armed forces of a united Germany – an issue I know you discussed with Helmut Kohl. We also fundamentally changed our military approach on conventional and nuclear forces. We conveyed the idea of an expanded, stronger CSCE with new institutions in which the USSR can share and be part of the new Europe.” (See Document 24)
The documents show that Gorbachev agreed to German unification in NATO as the result of this cascade of assurances, and on the basis of his own analysis that the future of the Soviet Union depended on its integration into Europe, for which Germany would be the decisive actor.
[Note, the contemporaneous official assurances from the United States made NO promises relating to Eastern European expansion of NATO, and the USSR was invited to join NATO but chose not to follow up on the offer. So, the USSR missed its chance, and Russia does not inherit any of the USSR’s security guarantees that in any case expired after Germany’s reunification. It is clear from the various documents that Gorbachev was only concerned about his political stature in the USSR and wanted assurances that he wouldn’t be embarrassed by approving German Reunification and then having Germany loudly joining NATO "on the day after". Gorbachev got what he wanted, and then he resigned – any assurances expired with Gorbachev.
Very interesting. I hadn’t appreciated the strategic importance of the Russian river network, and the Sea of Azov to that network.
Dombass!! Not dom base ….
If Russia was peaceful, it wouldn’t need to worry about this.
Dont be fooled. Conquering Ukraine is about the greed of the rich oligarchs taking more resources and enriching themselves by stealing from the people of Ukraine. They already stole from their own country. They live wealthy lives while the rest of Russia barely scrapes by.
Putin didn’t attack Ukraine because of NATO expansion worries, they want the resources.and maybe he didn’t want his people to see the ukrainians free and rich. He thought it was going to be easy. He f*ed up. Only China would attack Russia, that should happen in a year or two.
Nah. I’m not buying that Ukraine must remain under Russia’s thumb. The post nuclear world is vastly different from the 19th century and it would be suicide for any country to invade Russia proper for the purpose of claiming territory. The "existential threat" horseshit doesn’t hold water. Russia ACKNOWLEDGED Ukraine’s sovereignty and they pulled a fast one by fooling Ukraine ( with help from the USA) into giving up its nuclear arsenal. That was the only thing keeping Russia from trying to swallow Ukraine back. If Ukraine pushes into Rostov-on-Don, Russia will have to give up Crimea. Ukraine needs leverage as there is no way Ukraine pushes into Crimea without losing 300,000 soldiers.
So why need the buffer in the first place?
Why not just join NATO and not worry about other countries messing with you?
Putin should have thought of this before he invaded Ukraine. No one was bothering Russia until Putin began his destruction of Ukraine.
The problem is, Ukraine has its own wishes and desires and owes NOTHING to Russia. Russia has no right to a "sphere of influence". Down with Russian aggression. This is like excusing a murder because they were abused as a child.
Vivaldi
So, poor insecure Russia is vulnerable, and therefore allowed to do unto others what it is afraid will be done unto them? And the others whom they conquer, their needs are to be subsumed? I think Russia is making a self-fulfilling prophecy. It would be so much better to be on friendly terms, if only their extremely corrupt system could survive the scrutiny that comes with open cultural and business practices. The things that save that pathetic system are the nuclear weapons and the consistently low expectations and demands of the Russian people. The Russian rulers’ keep conflict going to force more loyalty from the ever-abused people of Russia. This is the major test of our times. The allies are arming Ukraine enough to hold on but not enough to win. We have to get Russia on our side and on the side of peaceful progress for everyone. There is no idealogical conflict because Russia is not socialist. It’s more about the rule of law, and what we have here is a nuclear arsenal in the hands of organized crime the size of a nation.
Robber’s logic: something threaten me potentially, I will get rid of it. in order to persuade all, I will make up a reasonable reason, which is called geopolitical security.
Indônèsia subtitution please
Prisoners of Geography
Russia could’ve been the leading force of Europe, it’s a shame that they went down this way
These geopolitical considerations are moot points when you possess the worlds largest nuclear arsenal.
No one is invading Russia or is going to invade Russia.
The only invading troops belong to Russia.
NATO will only expand because Russia’s neighbours, quite rightly, want to not be invaded.
Russian foreign policy is that of the bully- it has the largest landmass in the world, most of it is undeveloped and rich in wealth. Still they would rather steal the wealth from their neighbours rather than invest in their own country.
Russia demands respect but offers the world nothing to garner that respect apart from the notion that it is somehow mighty.
I’m sick of hearing about the need for strategic depth in the European plane and that somehow that justifies the atrocities that Russia is committing.
Why is the argument of Russian strategic depth somehow more valuable than the strategic depth of keeping Russia away from Europe?
Why is Russian security, who I will re-iterate have the largest stockpile of weapons of mass destruction in human history, more important than the security of the people of Eastern Europe?
Stop trotting out this nonsense of justifiable expansionism. They are just Kremlin talking points, and I am continually amazed by how many respectable commentators parrot them.
Once again – no one is invading the most heavily nuclear armed country in the universe.
The only country that has been invading its neighbours for the past 20 years and who has been threatening the world with nuclear attack is Russia.
Berlin is also incredibly vulnerable to invasions from the eastern steppe plain. I think it is justified if Germany extends its borders beyond belarus and up to the border with Russia. Historically speaking Berlin and Germany has been invaded plenty of times from this direction and there are no natural barriers between it and Russia for example with things like mountains. Also an extension of germany’s natural borders to the atlantic ocean to the west seems logical and completely reasonable. Paris and the French be damned of course, they aren’t a real people anyway and historically that is Frankish (germanic) territory so an extension of germany’s borders westwards makes total sense for the protection of the germanic heartland. French neighbors only have a few hundred kilomters to go to reach Berlin and this needs to be at least several thousand kilometers for berlin to feel safe. Finally the scandinavian countries and the baltic sea are a pivotal area for germany. Scandinavian countries can choke germany’s naval and maritime trade and access if they deem it necessary and this is a strategic threat to the german heartland and economy so these nations will need to be annexed in order for germany to feel secure and able to move about in the baltic sea without impediment.
I think you can guess where this is going.
Russia can fuck off. They have plenty of territory to safeguard their land. Any demands for more land for ‘security’ reasons comes at the expense of other people and cultures who equally feel threatened by the short distance Russia has to their cultural and political centers so again Russia can fuck off, everyone in this area is in a vulnerable position. Stretching your borders isn’t going to create peace or stability, opening up diplomatically and economically and cooperating with each other on the other hand is a proper and decent way to ensure peace and stability.
This was all true before the nuclear age. With the massive stockpile of nukes, the geographical aspect is put in a second place. If Russia actually faced a geographical threat, NATO would have used this possibility to take over russia in the last 14 months, yet nothing ike this has happened. The reason? nukes.
so ruzzia should be destroyed to let normal nations live as they want
This is the exact reasom why I understand Russias reasoning to invade Ukraine. Too bad the west are war mongerers and took no action to stopping this from happening. They are forever locked into a cold war with Russia for all we know that is weak in conventional military anyway so why bother admitting Ukraine to Nato?. They could project their power well within Russia if they wanted too even with just conventional military power.
I am sorry but this is utter nonsense. Russia has invaded it’s neighbors as long as it was in existence and it has nothing to do with defence. It is an aggressive and expansionist power that has made enemies by constantly attacking in all directions. If it wanted safety it would just stop attacking everyone. Please stop buying this russian propaganda, it’s a load of BS
Didn’t president Carter give the Panama canal away? 😅😅😅😅😅 another brilliant Democrat. Pfft
Russia’s best defense is winter. It is very effective.
Russia needs to be prepared for a collapse similar to what followed the failure of the USSR.